Greener Journal of Environmental Management and Public Safety

Vol. 9(1), pp. 19-29, 2020

ISSN: 2354-2276

Copyright ©2020, the copyright of this article is retained by the author(s)

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Change in Climate and Socio-Economics Damages due to Natural Disasters: A case of Vietnam

 

 

Bui Thi Nga

 

 

Faculty of Accounting and Business Management,

Vietnam National University of Agriculture

 

 

 

ARTICLE INFO

ABSTRACT

 

Article No.: 040720056

Type: Short Comm

 

 

This article researches the changes in climate in Vietnam and its socio-economics damages, based on data from Vietnam General Statistics Offices and recorded data from Vietnam Disaster Management Authority through the last two decades. The results showed that, In Vietnam, the rainfall, the sunshine, the air temperature varies greatly over the years and tends to increase in recent years while the average air humidity has a slow downward trend. The highest and lowest water levels measured at the monitoring stations on the two largest rivers of Vietnam showed a large variation, with a significant decrease in the flowing water level. Contrary to the declining trend of river water level, the mean sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years. Change in climate is causing many negative impacts on this region such as droughts, landslides, erosion, storms, floods, etc. The economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam in recent years showed a quite clear increasing trend and greatly and negatively affect the development of the country's economic sectors. Among the sectors damaged by natural disasters, agriculture suffered the most, and the level of damage tended to increase over the years. Besides, natural disasters have caused many social losses in Vietnam, including human death, missing, and injured people; education, health, transportation damage and impact on other aspects of life.

 

Accepted:  08/04/2020

Published: 13/05/2020

 

*Corresponding Author

Bui Thi Nga

E-mail: hieu0306@gmail.com / btnga@vnua.edu.vn

Phone: +84 (0) 91 88 39 181

 

Keywords: climate change; natural disaster; economic loss; socio-economics damages

 

 

 

 

 

 


1.      Climate change and its impacts on socio-economics aspect

 

            Climate change is the change in the pattern of weather, and related changes in oceans, land surfaces and ice sheets, occurring over time scales of decades or longer. Changes in climate can occur through both natural and human-induced causes: (1) Global climate varies naturally over time scales from decades to thousands of years and longer; (2) Human activities can also influence climate by changing concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, altering the concentrations of aerosols and the reflectivity of Earth’s surface by changing land cover (Australian Academy of Science, 2020).

Climate change threatens the cleanliness of our air, sea-level rise, depletes our water sources, shifts of climatic zones due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, and limits food supply. It is also likely to increase the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods, and storms. The impacts of climate change affect every country on every continent. They're creating unprecedented challenges for millions of people already burdened by poverty and oppression (Abeygunawardena, et. al, 2009). It is considered as one of the biggest challenges the world faces today posing a threat to many populations around the globe (Habtemariam et al., 2017; Tai et al., 2014; Wheeler and Braun, 2013)

Climate change has led to changes in land characteristics, which have affected agricultural production. At the same time, it leads to abnormally increased risks due to floods and sea-level rise, etc., affecting households' livelihoods, especially households in vulnerable regions (Renaud et al. 2014). Therefore, the conversion of livelihoods for the poor, households in the regions prone to climate change are gaining much attention by many scholars, policymakers, local authorities, etc.

The impacts of climate change on livelihoods depend on the level of the disaster, its physical impacts on the physical environment, water, climate, etc. Climate change is a threat and a major influence on the work of people around the globe - especially the poor, whose jobs depend on agriculture (Smith & Troni, 2004; Reid, 2004). The lack of water in agricultural production, the frequent occurrence of floods, and droughts will cause major problems for livelihoods, lives and health of people (Md. Afjal Hossain et.al, 2012). According to Kurt Klein et al. (2015), climate change affects people's livelihoods in the following three negative ways: (1) through a natural disaster it can directly affect people's jobs and income; (2) it leads to change in many sectors, services and indirectly impacts employment and income; (3) the serious disasters of climate change lead to migration, disturbance in the labor market, the consequences of urbanization due to migration (clean water, housing, health, health, employment, etc).

Studies indicate that agriculture will be affected by climate change, limiting food production and threatening food security around the world (Habtemariam et al., 2017; Tai et al., 2014; Wheeler and Braun, 2013). The impacts of climate change on agriculture in developing countries will depend on the extent to which agricultural production in those regions adapts to the influences of these changes. Climate change leads to particular losses in smallholder farm profitability (Tang and Hailu, 2019). Smallholder farmers in developing countries continue to face an increasing threat from climate change (Habtemariam et al., 2017). These groups of people are among the most vulnerable to climate change having a warm climate and lower socio-economic status that limits their capacity to adapt to the rapidly growing climate change effects (Ringler et al., 2010). There is a large variation in the degree of vulnerability to climate change among households in the same agro-climate zone. These differences are attributable to variations in socio-economic household characteristics and the ability to access livelihood assets (Huynh and Stringer, 2018).

Around the world, climate change is increasingly affecting the poor. Climate change limits food supply and creates many challenges for millions of poor people. The impacts of climate change, and the vulnerability of poor communities to climate change, vary greatly, but generally, climate change is superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. It will further reduce access to drinking water, negatively affect the health of poor people, and will pose a real threat to food security in many countries in Africa, Asia, and Latin America (Abeygunawardena, et. Al, 2009).

In many countries, women may be constrained by social and cultural structures that place them in inferior social positions, limiting their access to income, education, public voice, and survival mechanisms (Abeygunawardena, et. al, 2009). However, the societal role of women and their contact with the environment varies from community to community, region to region and country to country and therefore, the specificity of vulnerability may differ from community to community (Arora-Jonsson, 2011).

Akinsemolu et al (2019) have studied the contextual vulnerability of women to climate change in Ilaje coastal region in Nigeria. Although climate change is expected to exacerbate vulnerabilities and deepen existing gender inequities and inequalities, the impacts will be unequally felt across geographical strata. The study shows that the specificity of the vulnerability of women to climate change may also vary from community to community and society to societies. Economic, political, educational and environmental aspects are factors affecting the vulnerability of women to climate change. DeVoe et al. (2013) suggested that since women are the most affected by climate change, they need to adopt a leadership role. Women can play an instrumental role in protecting the environment by advocating for biodiversity conservation (Audu, 2013). Through their active participation, women may ensure sustainable use of resources. Moreover, women also contribute more in water resource management (Fakoya et al., 2007). International Care Organization reported that women in Vietnam will be affected the most by climate change as they play an important role in taking care of food security for the family (Van Duc, 2015). There is a difference in rights and responsibilities between female and male farmers, leading to unequal opportunities and immobility for females, making them more vulnerable to climate impacts and threatening to reduce their capacity to adapt (Ylipaa et al., 2019).

Children are especially sensitive to changes in the climate because they are physiologically and metabolically less able than adults at adapting to warmer and other climate change effects. Children's still-growing puts them at higher risk of contracting diseases and succumbing to related complications due to lower functional immunity. Children are also more likely than adults to be killed or injured during disasters (UNICEF, 2011). Lawler and Patel (2012) analyzed children's specific vulnerabilities to climate change and indicates that existing vulnerabilities are likely to be exacerbated by continued climate change. Because children have unique perspectives of their environment, they can be important actors in enhancing community capacity to address climate-related risks.

Climate change will increase the frequency or intensity of some extreme events, such as extreme heat events, flooding, droughts, and wildfires. During heat waves, certain risk factors can make some people with disabilities especially susceptible to heat-related illness and death. These include having dementia, depending on others for assistance in activities of daily living, having limited mobility, or not having access to transportation. People with disabilities have had high rates of illness, injuries, or death from these types of events (EPA, 2016).

Negative impacts of climate change force people to find new livelihoods or move elsewhere to live (Kurt Klein et. al, 2015). Adaptation and livelihood conversion are indispensable and mandatory for people in the areas strongly affected by climate change. This requires households and local governments to be proactive and have solutions to livelihoods and livelihoods conversion of people in areas severely impacted by climate change. Qing and Maria (2018) emphasized that the way to reduce the dependence of rural households in developing countries on climate-dependent agricultural activities is to diversify income and livelihoods for rural households. Huynh and Stringer, 2018 also proposed the same ideas that diversifying livelihoods and reducing poverty are important in contributing to the resilience of households. Climate change response and household livelihood diversification could be implemented by changing production practices and technologies, diversifying livelihood systems, reallocating resources, restructuring labor, etc (S.B. Thakur and A. Bajagain, 2019).

 

2.      Change in Vietnam’s climate

 

2.1   Rainfall

 

According to the results measured at the monitoring stations, the rainfall in Vietnam varies greatly over the years and tends to increase. The largest variation was recorded in Hue, with the highest level of approximately 4,500 millimeters (mm) while the lowest amount was only a half (2,206 mm). Similarly, the rainfall level was fluctuated greatly in Nha Trang, as rainfall was changing up and down annually. The average annual recorded rainfall was around 2,000 mm, with the highest average level of 2,271.6 mm in 2017 and the lowest was 1,675.7 mm in 2006. On average, the annual rainfall increased by 8-12 mm. The highest average rainfall was also in Hue, reaching 3,223 mm. The lowest average rainfall was in Vung Tau, at 1,386 mm with the lowest rainfall level of 819 mm in 2006.


 

 

Figure 2. Rainfall at monitoring stations

Source: GSO (2020)

 

 


2.2   Sunshine

 

The results measured at the monitoring stations also showed that the number of sunny hours in Vietnam has fluctuated over the years. The average number of sunshine hours at observation stations reached a peak of 2,174.5 hours in 2015 and the lowest was 1,731.4 in 2011. On average, the number of sunshine hours increased 5 to 8 hours per year. The highest average hours of sunshine were recorded in Vung Tau, reaching 2,580.5 hours per year, with the highest of 2,938 hours in 2015. The lowest average hours of sunshine were in Hanoi at 1,239 hours per year, and the lowest level was 909.7 hours in 2012.


 

 

Figure 1. Hours of sunshine at monitoring stations

Source: GSO (202e0)

 

 


2.3   Air temperature

 

The air temperature in Vietnam has also the same tendency of slightly increasing in recent years. The average air temperature at the monitoring stations of the whole country was 24.4oC. However, there were fluctuations in air temperature between regions and following different trends. At most of the monitoring stations, the records followed the upward trend. Meanwhile, at Lai Chau monitoring station, the measured air temperature tended to decrease significantly over the same period. The difference temperature measured at the monitoring station of Vung Tau and Lam Dong was 9 to 100C. The highest average air temperature measured in Vung Tau at 27.90C, where had the highest number of hours of sunshine while the lowest average air temperature in Lam Dong was recorded at 18.40C.


 

 

Figure 4. Average air temperature at monitoring stations

Source: GSO (2020)

 

 


2.4   Air humidity

 

In recent years, the average air humidity at monitoring stations in Vietnam was around 81%, with a slight downward trend. The measured humidity varied greatly, especially between regions. In some regions, for example, the recorded numbers varied in the opposite directions in Lai Chau and Quy Nhon monitoring stations, and in both regions, the measured number did not follow a stable trend. The highest average air humidity was in Hue at 86.7%. The lowest average humidity was in Hanoi at 77.5%.


 

Figure 3. Average air humidity at monitoring stations

Source: GSO (2020)

 

 


2.5   River and sea-level

 

The highest and lowest water levels measured at the monitoring stations on the two largest rivers of Vietnam, the Mekong River in the South and the Red River in the North, showed a large variation, with a significant decrease in the flowing water level. Specifically, in the North, the maximum water level on the Red River measured at Hanoi station decreased from a peak of 1,201 centimeters (cm) in 2002 to a much lower level of 576 cm in 2015 (less than half of the peak level in 2002). Similarly, the minimum water level measured at this monitoring station also decreased from 257 cm in 2002 to the lowest recorded level of 10 cm in 2010 and 2011, then stabilized at a relatively low level of 20 to 30 cm in recent years.

In the same direction, the highest water level measured at Tan Chau station on the Mekong River in the South also followed a quite clear downward trend, with the maximum level decreased from 482 cm in 2002 to the lowest level of 255 cm in 2015. The minimum water level fluctuated in the range from -23 cm to -56 cm, except in 2018, the minimum water level measured was high at 35 cm. In 2019, the water level in the Mekong River was recorded as the lowest level for the past 100 years. The water level of the two largest rivers in Vietnam tends to decrease due to the construction of lakes and hydropower dams (Trang Le, 2019).


 

Figure 5a. Max and min water level of Red river

Source: GSO (2020)

Figure 5b. Max and min water level of Mekong river

Source: GSO (2020)

 


 

Contrary to the declining trend of river water level, the mean sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years. The average sea-level measured in recent years at monitoring stations was different. The recorded number at Vung Tau monitoring station reached a peak of 270 mm with the highest level of 275 mm in 2017. Meanwhile, the average sea-level measured at Con Co reached the lowest level of 77.5 mm, about 190 mm lower than the measured number in Vung Tau, and the lowest level was 70 mm in 2017, 205 mm lower compared to Vung Tau recorded number.


 

 

Figure 6. Sea-level at monitoring stations

Source: GSO (2020)

 

 

 


 

3.      Socio-economics damages due to the changes in climate in Vietnam

 

Vietnam is predominately an agricultural country and is classified as one that will be most severely affected by climate change (Dasgupta et al., 2007; Monre, 2016). Change in climate is causing many negative impacts on this region such as droughts, landslides, erosion, storms, floods, etc. These negative influences affect every aspect of the social life of local people, in which, households and ethnic minorities who depend mainly on agriculture are the most vulnerable people.

 

 

3.1   Economic damages

 

3.1.1        Economic losses caused by disasters in Viet Nam

 

The statistics on the economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam in recent years showed a quite clear increasing trend. Before 1995, the economic damage caused by natural disasters to the country was less than VND 2,500 billion[1]. The numbers were increasing, reached the highest level in 2017, and the worst damage amounted to approximately VND 60,000 billion (around USD 2.56 million). The losses greatly and negatively affect the development of the country's economic sectors.

 


 

Figure 7. Economic losses caused by disasters in Vietnam

Source: DMA, 2020

 

 


The typical natural disasters caused the economic losses in Vietnam include: landslides at mountainous areas, river and coastal banks; tides; freezing; drought; tornadoes; floods, waterlogging; storms, thunderstorms, and lightning. The two main natural disaster groups that caused great economic losses to Vietnam were floods, landslides; and storms, tornadoes, which often caused losses of more than half of total damages due to natural disasters. The losses caused by these disasters varied from year to year. Particularly, in 2013 and 2017, the damage caused by these two disaster groups accounted for 99% of the total economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam. Table 1 also shows a tendency to shift from damage caused by the first group: storms and tornadoes to the second group of floods and landslides in recent years. In the past, economic losses were mainly caused by storm, tornadoes, and often concentrated in coastal areas. However, in recent years, losses due to rain, flash floods, landslides occurred mainly, in many provinces and regions nationwide, accounted for the increasing proportion.


 

 

Table 1. Major disasters caused economic losses

Floods, landslides

Storms, tornadoes and related damages

Year

VND Million

%

VND Million

%

2018

12,322,662

61.61

3,766,179

18.83

2017

15,747,580

26.26

44,119,067

73.58

2016

5,858,243

14.75

11,943,892

30.07

2015

5,199,025

64.07

626,109

7.72

2014

175,880

6.22

1,957,210

69.21

2013

687,978

2.47

27,001,810

96.94

Source: DMA, 2020

 

 


3.1.2        Damages in the agricultural sector.

 

Among the sectors damaged by natural disasters, agriculture suffered the most, and the level of damage tended to increase over the years. The agricultural sector was losses not only in productivity but also in efficiency because production in the agricultural sector is directly affected by climatic conditions, including sunshine, rain, drought, humidity, hoarfrost, river level, and irrigation system. Statistics showed that 2016 and 2017 were the two years recorded the greatest losses in agriculture. In 2016, the total farming area damaged by natural disasters was 990 thousand hectares (ha), of which one third was completely damaged. In the same year, a number of cattle and poultry died and swept away by natural disasters also reached the highest of nearly 76,000 and 1.86 million heads, respectively. The fishery industry was also severely damaged by natural disasters in 2016, with a total 109 thousand hectares of aquaculture area loss. The situation slightly decreased in 2017 but remained at a relatively high, with 677 thousand hectares of arable land damaged, nearly 70,000 cattle and 2 million poultry died and swept away; over 60 thousand hectares of aquaculture damaged.


 

 

Table 2. Agricultural damages due to natural disaster

Sector

Unit

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Cultivation

Ha of damages

441,081

268,797

496,341

990,619

676,970

311,092

Ha of fully damages

139,839

33,650

30,273

304,697

27,712

47,278

Animal husbandry

Number of deaths and swept away cattle

46,279

4,103

2,642

75,874

69,757

30,228

Number of deaths and swept away poultry

1,166,901

48,636

63,448

1,860,026

1,976,339

781,643

Aquaculture

Ha of damages

103,344

1,071

5,714

109,341

60,391

12,740

Source: DMA, 2020

 

 


3.2   Social impact

 

Not only affecting the economic sector, but natural disasters have also caused many social losses in Vietnam, including human death, missing, and injured people; education, health, transportation damage and impact on other aspects of life.

 

3.2.1        Human being

 

Every year, natural disasters caused many deaths for Vietnamese. Although the number of deaths due to natural disasters has been decreasing over the years, on average, each year, natural disasters cause the deaths of around 200 people in Vietnam. The greatest number was recorded in 1996 with 1,128 deaths.


 

 

Figure 8a. Number of deaths caused by disaster in Vietnam

Source: DMA, 2020 and Mai Trong Nhuan et al., 2015.

 

 


Besides the deaths, the natural disaster also caused many missing and injured people. In recent years, an average of 30 people have gone missing each year and nearly 400 people have been injured by natural disasters. The greatest human loss was recorded in 2017 with 235 deaths, 61 missing people and 664 injuries.


 

Figure 8a. Human effected by disaster in Vietnam

Source: DMA, 2020

 

 

 


3.2.2        House damages

 

Natural disasters have also negatively affected the living condition of the Vietnamese. Every year, natural disasters caused many difficulties for people with house damage or waterlogging. In addition to the greatest economic loss, with many people dead, missing and injured, the natural disasters caused great damage to the living condition of people, with more than 8000 houses completely collapsed, 358 thousand the house was partially damaged, 230 thousand houses were submerged in water. This greatly affects the lives and activities of people. On average, each house has 4 people living, the total number of people affected by no houses or houses damaged, flooded up to 2.4 million people, equivalent to 2.5% of the population of Vietnam.


 

 

Table 3. Numbers of housed damages caused by the disaster in Vietnam

Kind of damage

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Fully damaged

12.185

1.985

1.242

5.431

8.166

1.987

Partialy damaged

305.189

24.412

15.546

119.027

357.919

22.021

In flooded

588.246

18.346

19.687

245.970

230.220

81.508

Source: DMA, 2020

 

 


3.2.3        Other damages

 

Natural disasters also had negatively affected and caused great damage to other economic sectors in Vietnam such as education, healthcare system, culture, communication systems; transportation system, irrigation and other fields in the economy. For an instant, in 2018, in the educational sector, natural disasters imposed negative impacts on 456 schools at all levels from kindergartens to universities; 325 classrooms were damaged, of which, one third were completely damaged; 154 classrooms were submerged in water, of which 102 classrooms were submerged in water less than 1 meter, 35 classrooms were submerged in water from 1 to 3 meters, and 10 classrooms were submerged in water more than 3 meters. In addition, natural disasters also damaged many pieces of educational equipment with a value of VND 3.6 billion.

            Similarly, in the same year, natural disasters damaged 22 clinics and hospitals. Many others were submerged in water, of which, 4 clinics were submerged in water less than 1 meter, 4 clinics were submerged in water from 1 to 3 meters, and 4 clinics were submerged in water more than 3 meters. Besides, many pieces of healthcare equipment, drugs and medical supplies valued of VND 1.65 billion were destroyed. Natural disasters also damaged 65 cultural heritages and 127 cultural and historical relics and many pieces of cultural equipment worth VND 1,9 billion in 2018. Natural disasters destroyed more than 1,101 km of embankments, quai and ditches in the irrigation systems; 718 km of roads in the transportation system; damaged 4 communication stations, collapsed and broke 390 antenna and 1,639 electricity poles, broke off 31,970m of electric wire.

 

 

 

4.      CONCLUSION

 

Climate change threatens the cleanliness of our air, sea-level rise, depletes our water sources, shifts of climatic zones due to increased temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns, and limits food supply. It is considered one of the biggest challenges the world faces today posing a threat to many populations around the globe.

           It is necessary to have more information and research to conclude that the change in climate is bad for our life. But the evidence from Vietnam shows that the change in climate imposes a negative impact on social-economic aspect. In Vietnam, according to the results measured at the monitoring stations, the rainfall in Vietnam varies greatly over the years and tends to increase. The number of sunny hours in Vietnam has fluctuated over the years and increased 5 to 8 hours per year. The air temperature in Vietnam has also the same tendency of slightly increasing in recent years while the average air humidity has a slow downward trend. The highest and lowest water levels measured at the monitoring stations on the two largest rivers of Vietnam showed a large variation, with a significant decrease in the flowing water level. Contrary to the declining trend of river water level, mean sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years.

Vietnam is predominately an agricultural country, and is classified as one that will be most severely affected by climate change. Change in climate is causing many negative impacts on this region such as droughts, landslides, erosion, storms, floods, etc. These negative influences affect every aspect of the social life of local people, in which, households and ethnic minorities who depend mainly on agriculture are the most vulnerable people.

            The statistics on the economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam in recent years showed a quite clear increasing trend. The losses greatly and negatively affect the development of the country's economic sectors. The typical natural disasters caused economic losses in Vietnam include: landslides at mountainous areas, river and coastal banks; tides; freezing; drought; tornadoes; floods, waterlogging; storms, thunderstorms and lightning. The two main natural disaster groups that caused great economic losses to Vietnam were floods, landslides; and storms, tornadoes, which often caused losses of more than half of total damages due to natural disasters.

            Among the sectors damaged by natural disasters, agriculture suffered the most, and the level of damage tended to increase over the years. The agricultural sector was losses not only in productivity but also in efficiency because production in the agricultural sector is directly affected by climatic conditions, including sunshine, rain, drought, humidity, hoarfrost, river level, and irrigation system. Not only affecting the economic sector, but natural disasters have also caused many social losses in Vietnam, including human death, missing, and injured people; education, health, transportation damage and impact on other aspects of life.

 

 

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Cite this Article: Nga BT (2020). Change in Climate and Socio-Economics Damages due to Natural Disasters: A case of Vietnam. Greener Journal of Environmental Management and Public Safety, 9(1):19-29.

 

 



[1] VND is the Vietnamese currency. 1 USD = 23,400 VND according to the official exchange rate of Vietnam. https://portal.vietcombank.com.vn/Personal/TG/Pages/ty-gia.aspx?devicechannel=default