Greener Journal of Environmental Management and Public Safety Vol. 9(1), pp. 19-29, 2020 ISSN: 2354-2276 Copyright ©2020, the copyright of this
article is retained by the author(s) |
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Change in Climate and
Socio-Economics Damages due to Natural Disasters: A case of Vietnam
Faculty of
Accounting and Business Management,
Vietnam National
University of Agriculture
ARTICLE INFO |
ABSTRACT |
Article
No.: 040720056 Type: Short Comm |
This article researches the changes in climate
in Vietnam and its socio-economics damages, based on data from Vietnam
General Statistics Offices and recorded data from Vietnam Disaster
Management Authority through the last two decades. The results showed that,
In Vietnam, the rainfall, the sunshine, the air temperature varies greatly
over the years and tends to increase in recent years while the average air
humidity has a slow downward trend. The highest and lowest water levels
measured at the monitoring stations on the two largest rivers of Vietnam
showed a large variation, with a significant decrease in the flowing water
level. Contrary to the declining trend of river water level, the mean
sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years. Change in climate is
causing many negative impacts on this region such as droughts, landslides,
erosion, storms, floods, etc. The economic losses caused by natural
disasters in Vietnam in recent years showed a quite clear increasing trend
and greatly and negatively affect the development of the country's economic
sectors. Among the sectors damaged by natural disasters, agriculture
suffered the most, and the level of damage tended to increase over the
years. Besides, natural disasters have caused many social losses in Vietnam,
including human death, missing, and injured people; education, health,
transportation damage and impact on other aspects of life. |
Accepted: 08/04/2020 Published:
13/05/2020 |
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*Corresponding
Author Bui Thi Nga E-mail:
hieu0306@gmail.com / btnga@vnua.edu.vn Phone: +84 (0) 91 88 39
181 |
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Keywords:
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1.
Climate change and its
impacts on socio-economics aspect
Climate change is the
change in the pattern of weather, and related changes in oceans, land surfaces
and ice sheets, occurring over time scales of decades or longer. Changes in
climate can occur through both natural and human-induced causes: (1) Global
climate varies naturally over time scales from decades to thousands of years
and longer; (2) Human activities can also influence climate by changing
concentrations of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,
altering the concentrations of aerosols and the reflectivity of Earth’s surface
by changing land cover (Australian Academy of Science, 2020).
Climate
change threatens the cleanliness of our air, sea-level rise, depletes our water
sources, shifts of climatic zones due to increased temperatures and changes in
precipitation patterns, and limits food supply. It is also likely to increase
the frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events such as droughts, floods,
and storms. The impacts of climate change affect every country on every
continent. They're creating unprecedented challenges for millions of people
already burdened by poverty and oppression (Abeygunawardena,
et. al, 2009). It is considered as one of the biggest challenges the world
faces today posing a threat to many populations around the globe (Habtemariam
et al., 2017; Tai et al., 2014; Wheeler and Braun, 2013)
Climate
change has led to changes in land characteristics, which have affected agricultural
production. At the same time, it leads to abnormally increased risks due to
floods and sea-level rise, etc., affecting households' livelihoods, especially
households in vulnerable regions (Renaud et al. 2014). Therefore, the
conversion of livelihoods for the poor, households in the regions prone to
climate change are gaining much attention by many scholars, policymakers, local
authorities, etc.
The impacts of climate change on livelihoods depend on the level of the disaster, its physical impacts on the physical
environment, water, climate, etc. Climate change is a threat and a major
influence on the work of people around the globe - especially the poor, whose
jobs depend on agriculture (Smith & Troni, 2004; Reid, 2004). The lack of
water in agricultural production, the frequent occurrence of floods, and
droughts will cause major problems for livelihoods, lives and health of people
(Md. Afjal Hossain et.al, 2012). According to Kurt Klein et al. (2015), climate
change affects people's livelihoods in the following three negative ways: (1)
through a natural disaster it can directly affect people's jobs and income; (2)
it leads to change in many sectors, services and indirectly impacts employment
and income; (3) the serious disasters of climate change lead to migration,
disturbance in the labor market, the consequences of urbanization due to
migration (clean water, housing, health, health, employment, etc).
Studies
indicate that agriculture will be affected by climate change, limiting food
production and threatening food security around the world (Habtemariam et al.,
2017; Tai et al., 2014; Wheeler and Braun, 2013). The impacts of climate change
on agriculture in developing countries will depend on the extent to which
agricultural production in those regions adapts to the influences of these
changes. Climate change leads to particular losses in smallholder
farm profitability (Tang and Hailu, 2019). Smallholder farmers in
developing countries continue to face an increasing threat from climate change
(Habtemariam et al., 2017). These groups of people are among the most
vulnerable to climate change having a warm climate and lower socio-economic
status that limits their capacity to adapt to the rapidly growing climate
change effects (Ringler et al., 2010). There is a large variation in the degree
of vulnerability to climate change among households in the same agro-climate
zone. These differences are attributable to variations in socio-economic
household characteristics and the ability to access livelihood assets (Huynh
and Stringer, 2018).
Around the world, climate change is increasingly affecting the poor. Climate change limits food supply and creates many challenges for
millions of poor people. The impacts of climate change, and the vulnerability
of poor communities to climate change, vary greatly, but generally, climate
change is superimposed on existing vulnerabilities. It will further reduce
access to drinking water, negatively affect the health of poor people, and will
pose a real threat to food security in many countries in Africa, Asia, and
Latin America (Abeygunawardena, et. Al, 2009).
Akinsemolu et al (2019)
have studied the contextual vulnerability of women to climate change in Ilaje
coastal region in Nigeria. Although climate change is expected to exacerbate
vulnerabilities and deepen existing gender inequities and inequalities, the
impacts will be unequally felt across geographical strata. The study shows that
the specificity of the vulnerability of women to climate change may also vary
from community to community and society to societies. Economic, political,
educational and environmental aspects are factors affecting the vulnerability
of women to climate change. DeVoe et al. (2013) suggested that since women are
the most affected by climate change, they need to adopt a leadership role.
Women can play an instrumental role in protecting the environment by advocating
for biodiversity conservation (Audu, 2013). Through their active participation,
women may ensure sustainable use of resources. Moreover, women also contribute
more in water resource management (Fakoya et al., 2007). International Care
Organization reported that women in Vietnam will be affected the most by
climate change as they play an important role in taking care of food security
for the family (Van Duc, 2015). There is a difference in
rights and responsibilities between female and male farmers, leading to unequal
opportunities and immobility for females, making them more vulnerable to
climate impacts and threatening to reduce their capacity to adapt (Ylipaa et
al., 2019).
Children are especially sensitive to changes in the climate because they
are physiologically and metabolically less able than adults at adapting to
warmer and other climate change effects. Children's still-growing puts them at
higher risk of contracting diseases and succumbing to related complications due
to lower functional immunity. Children are also more likely than adults to be
killed or injured during disasters (UNICEF, 2011). Lawler and Patel (2012) analyzed children's specific vulnerabilities to
climate change and indicates that existing vulnerabilities are likely to be
exacerbated by continued climate change. Because children have unique
perspectives of their environment, they can be important actors in enhancing
community capacity to address climate-related risks.
Climate
change will increase the frequency or intensity of some extreme events, such as
extreme heat events, flooding, droughts, and wildfires. During heat waves,
certain risk factors can make some people with disabilities especially
susceptible to heat-related illness and death. These include having dementia,
depending on others for assistance in activities of daily living, having
limited mobility, or not having access to transportation. People with
disabilities have had high rates of illness, injuries, or death from these
types of events (EPA, 2016).
Negative
impacts of climate change force people to find new livelihoods or move
elsewhere to live (Kurt Klein et. al, 2015). Adaptation and livelihood
conversion are indispensable and mandatory for people in the areas strongly
affected by climate change. This requires households and local governments to
be proactive and have solutions to livelihoods and livelihoods conversion of
people in areas severely impacted by climate change. Qing and Maria (2018)
emphasized that the way to reduce the dependence of rural households in
developing countries on climate-dependent agricultural activities is to
diversify income and livelihoods for rural households. Huynh and Stringer, 2018
also proposed the same ideas that diversifying livelihoods and reducing poverty
are important in contributing to the resilience of households. Climate change
response and household livelihood diversification could be implemented by
changing production practices and technologies, diversifying livelihood
systems, reallocating resources, restructuring labor, etc (S.B. Thakur and A.
Bajagain, 2019).
2.
Change in Vietnam’s climate
2.1
Rainfall
According
to the results measured at the monitoring stations, the rainfall in Vietnam
varies greatly over the years and tends to increase. The largest variation was
recorded in Hue, with the highest level of approximately 4,500 millimeters (mm)
while the lowest amount was only a half (2,206 mm). Similarly, the rainfall level
was fluctuated greatly in Nha Trang, as rainfall was changing up and down
annually. The average annual recorded rainfall was around 2,000 mm, with the
highest average level of 2,271.6 mm in 2017 and the lowest was 1,675.7 mm in
2006. On average, the annual rainfall increased by 8-12 mm. The highest average
rainfall was also in Hue, reaching 3,223 mm. The lowest average rainfall was in
Vung Tau, at 1,386 mm with the lowest rainfall level of 819 mm in 2006.
Figure 2. Rainfall at monitoring stations
Source: GSO (2020)
2.2
Sunshine
The results measured at the monitoring stations also showed that the
number of sunny hours in Vietnam has fluctuated over the years. The average
number of sunshine hours at observation stations reached a peak of 2,174.5
hours in 2015 and the lowest was 1,731.4 in 2011. On average, the number of
sunshine hours increased 5 to 8 hours per year. The highest average hours of
sunshine were recorded in Vung Tau, reaching 2,580.5 hours per year, with the
highest of 2,938 hours in 2015. The lowest average hours of sunshine were in
Hanoi at 1,239 hours per year, and the lowest level was 909.7 hours in 2012.
Figure 1. Hours of sunshine at monitoring stations
Source: GSO (202e0)
2.3
Air temperature
The
air temperature in Vietnam has also the same tendency of slightly increasing in
recent years. The average air temperature at the monitoring stations of the
whole country was 24.4oC. However, there were fluctuations in air
temperature between regions and following different trends. At most of the
monitoring stations, the records followed the upward trend. Meanwhile, at Lai
Chau monitoring station, the measured air temperature tended to decrease
significantly over the same period. The difference temperature measured at the monitoring
station of Vung Tau and Lam Dong was 9 to 100C. The highest average
air temperature measured in Vung Tau at 27.90C, where had the
highest number of hours of sunshine while the lowest average air temperature in
Lam Dong was recorded at 18.40C.
Figure 4. Average air
temperature at monitoring stations
Source: GSO (2020)
2.4
Air humidity
In
recent years, the average air humidity at monitoring stations in Vietnam was
around 81%, with a slight downward trend. The measured humidity varied greatly,
especially between regions. In some regions, for example, the recorded numbers
varied in the opposite directions in Lai Chau and Quy Nhon monitoring stations,
and in both regions, the measured number did not follow a stable trend. The
highest average air humidity was in Hue at 86.7%. The lowest average humidity was
in Hanoi at 77.5%.
Figure 3. Average air humidity at monitoring
stations
Source: GSO (2020)
2.5
River and sea-level
The
highest and lowest water levels measured at the monitoring stations on the two
largest rivers of Vietnam, the Mekong River in the South and the Red River in
the North, showed a large variation, with a significant decrease in the flowing
water level. Specifically, in the North, the maximum water level on the Red
River measured at Hanoi station decreased from a peak of 1,201 centimeters (cm)
in 2002 to a much lower level of 576 cm in 2015 (less than half of the peak
level in 2002). Similarly, the minimum water level measured at this monitoring
station also decreased from 257 cm in 2002 to the lowest recorded level of 10 cm
in 2010 and 2011, then stabilized at a relatively low level of 20 to 30 cm in
recent years.
In
the same direction, the highest water level measured at Tan Chau station on the
Mekong River in the South also followed a quite clear downward trend, with the
maximum level decreased from 482 cm in 2002 to the lowest level of 255 cm in
2015. The minimum water level fluctuated in the range from -23 cm to -56 cm,
except in 2018, the minimum water level measured was high at 35 cm. In 2019,
the water level in the Mekong River was recorded as the lowest level for the
past 100 years. The water level of the two largest rivers in Vietnam tends to
decrease due to the construction of lakes and hydropower dams (Trang Le, 2019).
|
|
Figure 5a. Max and min water level of Red river Source: GSO (2020) |
Figure 5b. Max and min water level of Mekong river Source: GSO (2020) |
Contrary to the
declining trend of river water level, the mean sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years. The average sea-level
measured in recent years at monitoring stations was different. The recorded number at Vung Tau monitoring station reached a peak of 270 mm with the highest level of 275 mm in 2017. Meanwhile, the
average sea-level measured at Con Co reached the lowest level of 77.5 mm,
about 190 mm lower than the measured
number
in Vung Tau, and the lowest level
was 70 mm
in 2017, 205 mm lower compared to Vung
Tau recorded number.
Figure 6. Sea-level at
monitoring stations
Source: GSO (2020)
3.
Socio-economics damages due
to the changes in climate in Vietnam
Vietnam
is predominately an agricultural country and is classified as one that will be
most severely affected by climate change (Dasgupta et al., 2007; Monre, 2016). Change
in climate is causing many negative impacts on this region such as droughts,
landslides, erosion, storms, floods, etc. These
negative influences affect every aspect of the social life of local people, in
which, households and ethnic minorities who depend mainly on agriculture are
the most vulnerable people.
3.1
Economic damages
3.1.1
Economic losses caused
by disasters in Viet Nam
The
statistics on the economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam in
recent years showed a quite clear increasing trend. Before 1995, the economic
damage caused by natural disasters to the country was less than VND 2,500
billion[1].
The numbers were increasing, reached the highest level in 2017, and the worst
damage amounted to approximately VND 60,000 billion (around USD 2.56 million).
The losses greatly and negatively affect the development of the country's
economic sectors.
Figure 7. Economic losses caused by disasters in
Vietnam
Source: DMA, 2020
The
typical
natural disasters caused the economic losses in Vietnam include:
landslides at mountainous areas, river and coastal banks; tides; freezing; drought; tornadoes; floods, waterlogging;
storms, thunderstorms, and lightning. The two main natural disaster
groups that caused great economic losses to Vietnam were floods,
landslides; and storms,
tornadoes, which often caused
losses of more than half of total damages
due to natural disasters. The losses caused by these disasters varied from year to year. Particularly, in 2013 and 2017,
the damage caused by these two disaster groups accounted for 99% of the total
economic losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam. Table 1 also shows a tendency to
shift from damage caused by the first group: storms and tornadoes to the second group of floods and landslides
in recent years. In the past, economic losses were mainly caused by storm, tornadoes,
and often concentrated in coastal areas. However, in recent years,
losses due to rain, flash floods, landslides occurred mainly, in many provinces and regions
nationwide, accounted for the increasing proportion.
Table
1. Major
disasters caused economic losses
Floods, landslides |
Storms, tornadoes and related damages |
|||
Year |
VND Million |
% |
VND Million |
% |
2018 |
12,322,662 |
61.61 |
3,766,179 |
18.83 |
2017 |
15,747,580 |
26.26 |
44,119,067 |
73.58 |
2016 |
5,858,243 |
14.75 |
11,943,892 |
30.07 |
2015 |
5,199,025 |
64.07 |
626,109 |
7.72 |
2014 |
175,880 |
6.22 |
1,957,210 |
69.21 |
2013 |
687,978 |
2.47 |
27,001,810 |
96.94 |
Source: DMA, 2020
3.1.2
Damages in the agricultural
sector.
Among the sectors damaged by natural
disasters, agriculture suffered the most, and the level of damage tended to
increase over the years. The agricultural sector was losses not only in
productivity but also in efficiency because production in the agricultural
sector is directly affected by climatic conditions, including sunshine, rain,
drought, humidity, hoarfrost, river level, and irrigation system. Statistics
showed that 2016 and 2017 were the two years recorded the greatest losses in
agriculture. In 2016, the total farming area damaged by natural disasters was
990 thousand hectares (ha), of which one third was completely damaged. In the
same year, a number of cattle and poultry died and swept away by natural
disasters also reached the highest of nearly 76,000 and 1.86 million heads,
respectively. The fishery industry was also severely damaged by natural
disasters in 2016, with a total 109 thousand hectares of aquaculture area loss.
The situation slightly decreased in 2017 but remained at a relatively high,
with 677 thousand hectares of arable land damaged, nearly 70,000 cattle and 2
million poultry died and swept away; over 60 thousand hectares of aquaculture
damaged.
Table 2. Agricultural damages due to natural disaster
Sector |
Unit |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Cultivation |
Ha of damages |
441,081 |
268,797 |
496,341 |
990,619 |
676,970 |
311,092 |
Ha of fully damages |
139,839 |
33,650 |
30,273 |
304,697 |
27,712 |
47,278 |
|
Animal husbandry |
Number of deaths and swept away cattle |
46,279 |
4,103 |
2,642 |
75,874 |
69,757 |
30,228 |
Number of deaths and swept away poultry |
1,166,901 |
48,636 |
63,448 |
1,860,026 |
1,976,339 |
781,643 |
|
Aquaculture |
Ha of damages |
103,344 |
1,071 |
5,714 |
109,341 |
60,391 |
12,740 |
Source: DMA, 2020
3.2
Social impact
Not
only affecting the economic sector, but natural disasters have also caused many
social losses in Vietnam, including human death, missing, and injured people; education,
health, transportation damage and impact on other aspects of life.
3.2.1
Human being
Every
year, natural disasters caused many deaths for Vietnamese. Although the number
of deaths due to natural disasters has been decreasing over the years, on
average, each year, natural disasters cause the deaths of around 200 people in
Vietnam. The greatest number was recorded in 1996 with 1,128 deaths.
|
Figure 8a. Number of deaths caused by disaster in Vietnam Source:
DMA, 2020 and Mai Trong Nhuan et al., 2015. |
Besides the deaths, the natural disaster also caused many missing and
injured people. In recent years, an average of 30 people
have gone missing each year and nearly 400 people have been injured by natural
disasters. The greatest human loss was recorded in 2017 with 235
deaths, 61 missing people and 664 injuries.
|
Figure 8a. Human effected by disaster in Vietnam Source:
DMA, 2020 |
3.2.2
House damages
Natural
disasters have also negatively affected the living condition of the Vietnamese.
Every year, natural disasters caused many difficulties for people with house
damage or waterlogging. In addition to the greatest economic loss, with many
people dead, missing and injured, the natural disasters caused great damage to
the living condition of people, with more than 8000 houses completely
collapsed, 358 thousand the house was partially damaged, 230 thousand houses
were submerged in water. This greatly affects the lives and activities of
people. On average, each house has 4 people living, the total number of people
affected by no houses or houses damaged, flooded up to 2.4 million people, equivalent
to 2.5% of the population of Vietnam.
Table
3. Numbers of housed damages caused by the disaster in Vietnam
Kind of damage |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
2018 |
Fully damaged |
12.185 |
1.985 |
1.242 |
5.431 |
8.166 |
1.987 |
Partialy damaged |
305.189 |
24.412 |
15.546 |
119.027 |
357.919 |
22.021 |
In flooded |
588.246 |
18.346 |
19.687 |
245.970 |
230.220 |
81.508 |
Source:
DMA, 2020
3.2.3
Other damages
Natural
disasters also had negatively affected and caused great damage to other
economic sectors in Vietnam such as education, healthcare system, culture,
communication systems; transportation system, irrigation and other fields in
the economy. For an instant, in 2018, in the educational sector, natural
disasters imposed negative impacts on 456 schools at all levels from
kindergartens to universities; 325 classrooms were damaged, of which, one third
were completely damaged; 154 classrooms were submerged in water, of which 102 classrooms
were submerged in water less than 1 meter, 35 classrooms were submerged in
water from 1 to 3 meters, and 10 classrooms were submerged in water more than 3
meters. In addition, natural disasters also damaged many pieces of educational equipment
with a value of VND 3.6 billion.
Similarly, in the same year, natural
disasters damaged 22 clinics and hospitals. Many others were submerged in water,
of which, 4 clinics were submerged in water less than 1 meter, 4 clinics were submerged
in water from 1 to 3 meters, and 4 clinics were submerged in water more than 3
meters. Besides, many pieces of healthcare equipment, drugs and medical
supplies valued of VND 1.65 billion were destroyed. Natural disasters also
damaged 65 cultural heritages and 127 cultural and historical relics and many pieces
of cultural equipment worth VND 1,9 billion in 2018. Natural disasters destroyed
more than 1,101 km of embankments, quai and ditches in the irrigation systems; 718
km of roads in the transportation system; damaged 4 communication stations,
collapsed and broke 390 antenna and 1,639 electricity poles, broke off 31,970m
of electric wire.
4.
CONCLUSION
Climate
change threatens the cleanliness of our air, sea-level rise, depletes our water
sources, shifts of climatic zones due to increased temperatures and changes in
precipitation patterns, and limits food supply. It is considered one of the
biggest challenges the world faces today posing a threat to many populations
around the globe.
It is necessary to have
more information and research to conclude that the change in climate is bad for
our life. But the evidence from Vietnam shows that the change in climate
imposes a negative impact on social-economic aspect. In Vietnam, according to
the results measured at the monitoring stations, the rainfall in Vietnam varies
greatly over the years and tends to increase. The number of sunny hours in
Vietnam has fluctuated over the years and increased 5 to 8 hours per year. The
air temperature in Vietnam has also the same tendency of slightly increasing in
recent years while the average air humidity has a slow downward trend. The
highest and lowest water levels measured at the monitoring stations on the two
largest rivers of Vietnam showed a large variation, with a significant decrease
in the flowing water level. Contrary to the declining trend of river water level, mean sea-level tends to increase slightly over the years.
Vietnam
is predominately an agricultural country, and is classified as one that will be
most severely affected by climate change. Change in climate is causing many negative
impacts on this region such as droughts, landslides, erosion, storms, floods,
etc.
These negative influences affect every aspect of the
social life of local people, in which, households and ethnic minorities who
depend mainly on agriculture are the most vulnerable people.
The statistics on the economic
losses caused by natural disasters in Vietnam in recent years showed a quite
clear increasing trend. The losses greatly and negatively affect the
development of the country's economic sectors. The
typical
natural disasters caused economic losses in Vietnam include:
landslides at mountainous areas, river and coastal banks; tides; freezing; drought; tornadoes; floods, waterlogging;
storms, thunderstorms and lightning. The two
main natural disaster groups that caused great economic losses to
Vietnam were floods, landslides;
and storms, tornadoes, which often caused losses of more than
half of total
damages
due to natural disasters.
Among
the sectors damaged by natural disasters, agriculture suffered the most, and
the level of damage tended to increase over the years. The agricultural sector
was losses not only in productivity but also in efficiency because production
in the agricultural sector is directly affected by climatic conditions,
including sunshine, rain, drought, humidity, hoarfrost, river level, and
irrigation system. Not only affecting the economic sector, but natural
disasters have also caused many social losses in Vietnam, including human
death, missing, and injured people; education, health, transportation damage
and impact on other aspects of life.
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[1] VND is the Vietnamese currency. 1 USD = 23,400 VND according to the official exchange rate of Vietnam. https://portal.vietcombank.com.vn/Personal/TG/Pages/ty-gia.aspx?devicechannel=default