1.0 INTRODUCTION
The
Nigerian economy over the past years after the covid-19 pandemic crisis have
been faced with great economic depression coupled with issues of insecurity and
reckless corruption practices by most government officials which has reduced
the availability of funds for doing business, including a successful port
operation, thereby hampering and causing most businesses to disinvest and close
down, causing more hardship and sorrows to the citizens. With the 2023
concluded election, several politicians and government officials in Nigeria hoarded
the Naira note for campaigns and vote buying against the February 2023 election
that was held in Nigeria. This has aided in starving businesses off money to
operate with, and consumers not having enough cash to spend on their daily
physiological needs. Central bank in order to aid economic growth as well as
stimulate economies out of recession periods uses monetary policy tools (Hayes,
2022). Hence, due to the shortage of money supply caused by hoarding of naira
notes by politician for campaign purposes, the CBN governor in collaboration
with the federal government redesign the Naira currency notes in circulation in
order to encourage the injection of fund back into the banking system.
According to Bernard (2005), central bankers around the world generally agree on the benefits
for the economy of using market based instruments to implement monetary policy.
Following a trend initiated in the 1970s in industrial countries, central banks
in most developing countries and emerging market economies have attempted to regulate
overall liquidity conditions in the economy through financial operations in the
domestic money markets. The objective of these central banks has been to
influence the underlying demand and supply conditions for central bank money.
The move was the parallel in the monetary area of the trend toward enhancing the
role of price signals in the economy in general. It aimed at improving domestic
savings mobilization and strengthening their market allocation.
The process was not without difficulties
in those countries that did not succeed in developing their money markets. A
survey of country experiences shows that failure to establish a clear
separation between money creation and government funding needs often limited
the effectiveness of money market operations, as did limited market
participation and the lack of an effective framework to determine the timing and
size of the central bank’s money market operations.
The experience of countries at different
stages of money market development shows that the timing and speed of moving toward
reliance on money market operations to conduct monetary policy must be tailored
to each country’s particular circumstances.
The
money market is the cornerstone of a competitive and efficient system of market
based intermediation, and should normally be in good working order before a
government bond market is developed. The money market stimulates an active secondary
bond market by reducing the liquidity risk attached to bonds and other term financial
instruments and assisting financial intermediaries in managing liquidity risk. The
money market serves as the medium for government cash management and provides
the first Link in implementing monetary policy using indirect instruments.
There
are three key conditions required to develop a well-functioning money market: (i) banks and other financial institutions must be
commercially motivated to respond to incentives to actively manage risk and
maximize profit, (ii) the central bank must shift from direct to indirect
methods of implementing monetary policy, and (iii) the government must have a
good capacity for cash management, thereby giving the central bank greater freedom
in setting its operating procedures. The design of the central bank's market operating
procedures has a significant impact on banks' incentive to actively manage the
risk of running short of reserve money: the greater the incentive, the more Developing
Government Bond Markets.
The
Naira note according to Osadebe (2022) was redesigned
to address the issue of individuals who have made currency fraud their main
source of income, hidden money they have stolen, for instance, would either
find a way to change it by taking the money out or would not need it given the
change in the value of the Naira. In Nigeria, there has been an increase in
economic hardship for greater percentage of the Nigerian citizens. The National
Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on the
17th
of November 2022 said that 133 million (63%) Nigerians are suffering from high
level of poverty, with children constituting more than half of poor people in
the country (Komolafe et al., 2022). They argued that
two (2) out of every three (3) Nigerians are very poor and experiences just
over one-quarter of all possible deprivations in terms of education, health, living
standards, work and shocks (Komolafe et al., 2022).
This poverty level is heightened by politicians and other government officials
hording the Naira notes, storing them away in GP tanks, ware houses, buried in
hidden bunkers and etcetera so that the stacked away cash cannot be traced to
their account for money laundry and other criminal charges since it is not in a
bank account that can be traced. At November 4th 2022, Sahara Reporters
reported that the operatives of the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC) have uncovered billions of Naira in cash stashed in various houses of
some serving governors in Port Harcourt, Abuja and Kano (Sahara Reporters,
2022).
Many businesses across multiple sectors in Nigeria suffered losses in
profits and capital because of cash scarcity. Some of these businesses included
the United Africa Company, which operates in the food and beverage, real
estate, paint, and logistics industries; ABC Transport; and Dangote
Cement, import and export. In particular, the experience of Nigerian Breweries,
the Nigerian unit of Heineken N. V., illustrates the significant impact of cash
scarcity on businesses, as the company recorded its worst February sales in
fifteen years in 2023. Cash accounted for about 80 percent of its retail sales,
so the scarcity of cash had a direct impact on the company. Its
profits decreased by 10.5 percent between the first quarter of 2022 and the
first quarter of 2023 and revenue decreased by 29.7 percent within the same
period.
It
is widely known that over 90% of the volume of world trade is conveyed by sea
and the economic growth of any country depends greatly on its performance in
the international market (Nwokedi, et al., 2016). It
would not be possible to convey these marketable goods and perform effectively
in the global market without efficient maritime transport (Osadume
& University, 2020). This shows that the maritime sector is an important
component in facilitating international trade, and for this industry to be
efficient, there should be, among other things, well-functioning ports.
Therefore, the operation of ports, and its facilities are important for
countries located in the coastal region.
An
effective shipping policy will have a positive effect on the maritime sector
(Benson & David,
2018).
Previous studies reiterate that shipping policy, maritime sector and economic growth
has a linear relationship. Hence, a good shipping policy will lead to an improved
maritime sector that will cause a development in the national economy. The
government has its role to play in the maritime sector and this include but not
limited to; regulation, control and licensing, monitoring and execution of set
goals, maintenance of infrastructural facilities, standardization of port
operations and activities, promoting the ease of doing business in the
environment for all maritime actors and stakeholders, provision of collateral
and finance so that maritime goals and objectives for the nation can be
realized, coordination and implementation of maritime regulations within the
context of the national transport policy and the socio-economic thrust of the
government, acting as a mediator for maritime operators on international
issues, protecting indigenous maritime operators in such a way that incremental
growth and development of the sector can be achieved (BC, et al., 2017). However,
it has been identified over the years that the Nigerian government have failed
in its role and the inconsistent policies have hampered the development of the
maritime sector and especially the nation’s port system. The maritime sector is
one that must operate with well-defined conventions, rules and regulations that
is in line with global standards. But the Nigerian government seem not to support
this ideology, and this has left the port users, on several occasions, confused
and frustrated, regarding coping with the problems arising from such policies.
The
implementation of the CABOTAGE Policy is one major problem in the maritime
sector. It is known that the main objective of CABOTAGE is to retain the
transport of goods and services within the Nigerian coastal and inland waters
to vessels flying the Nigerian flag and owned by Nigerian citizens in
conformity with the tenets of the law. The aim of this law was to stop
continuous foreign domination in the carriage of local generated cargo which
will in turn, create employment for the indigenes and improvement of revenue
generation within the confines of the sector. The proper implementation of the
Act would therefore amount to a definite revolution in the nation’s maritime industry
(BC, et al., 2017). It is unfortunate that, even up till now, the problem of
foreign domination persists. Hence, the law is rational on paper but not in
practice. There is a need to get this critical policy in a workable condition
just like most developed economies of the world. Nevertheless, the vital
ingredient for functional cabotage is to encourage
investments in local vessel ownership.
At
the Business Action Against Corruption (BAAC)
Integrity Alliance inaugural meeting held in
Lagos
in 2021, the stakeholders insisted that, despite the capabilities of the
maritime industry to facilitate international trade, poor law enforcement, lack
of transparency and unfavorable government regulations have remained major
challenges to the development of the industry (Guardian, 2021). The chairman of
the maritime group, the Lagos Chamber of Commerce and Industry (LCCI), Mr. Aminu Umar lamented bitterly: “If you look at the
payment procedure in the ports today, for example, if your vessel is supposed
to berth in Apapa port and cannot because of congestion, and you want to berth
in Tincan port, the approval process, if you have
made a payment, it is impossible. Or if you want to move from Lagos to Port
Harcourt because your customers are there – to avoid delaying for 10 days, it
is impossible if you have made payment and it means you have lost the payment.
You will need to make another payment and it is not supposed to be so because
the port is a single entity and once you make payment to the authority, you
should be able to use their services in any of their ports”
The
lack of government regulations and summersaulted policies have given room to
corruption in Nigerian ports. If the Government had been steadfast in its
responsibilities, there would not be duplication of roles amongst the agencies,
the policies that would be beneficial to the growth of the maritime sector
would have been implemented.
1.1 Aim/ Objectives of the Studies
The aim of
this study is to examine the role of monetary policy, specifically the Naira
redesign policy, on port operations by analyzing its impact on cargo throughput
at Warri Seaport.
1.
To assess the effect of the Naira redesign
policy on cargo throughput at Warri Seaport during the implementation period.
2.
To analyze the factors contributing to
changes in cargo throughput at Warri Seaport during the Naira redesign policy
implementation.
2.0 LITERATURE REVIEW
According
to Nwachukwu
& Nwogu 2022, the discuss of the Central
Bank of Nigerian (CBN) governor and the Federal Governments monetary policy of
Naira redesign has hit the media space with arguments for and against the move.
Less has been discussed about its impact on every day business within the context
of Rivers state. Hence the study tried investigating the marketing implication
of the policy of Naira redesign on businesses in Port Harcourt. In order to do
this, the study utilized a quantitative research design method under which the
cross sectional survey method of distributing copies of questionnaire to the
respondents was adopted. The population for this study includes 7,149
businesses in Rivers state as identified in Business List
(https://www.businesslist.com.ng/state/rivers). Using Taro Yamen
formula, the study generated a sample of 378 from the target population, and
conveniently selected this sample from businesses around Port Harcourt. Out of
378 copies of questionnaire distributed, 367 were valid and were used for the
analysis. The study tested the earlier stated hypotheses using spearman rank
correlation coefficient. Based on the analysis conducted, the study found out
that Naira redesign will make money available for business transactions, and
the availability of money will encourage consumers’ patronage of goods and
services offered by businesses, the increase in patronage will result to sales
growth and customer’s ease of patronage encourages business profitability. Base
on the findings, the study concludes that the monetary policy of Naira redesign
will encourage better marketing performance in terms of increasing sales growth
and profitability in Port Harcourt. Hence the study recommends the faithful
implementation of the policy since there are inherent gains in the redesigning
of the Naira bank notes, secondly the need for a lot of public enlightenment on
the Naira redesign.
A given society and its leadership are guided
by several policies in different aspects which includes the monetary policy.
The investopedia Team (2022) defined monetary policy
as a set of tools utilized by the Central bank of a nation in controlling the
overall money supply and promoting growth in the economy while employing
strategies such as revising interest rates and changing bank reserve
requirements. Hassan and Ahmad (2022) defined it as a conscious attempt by the
monetary authorities to influence the cost, availability, and quantity of money
credit for the purpose of achieving anticipated macroeconomic objectives.
Monetary policy can also be seen as the macroeconomic policy put forward by the
central bank which involves the management of the supply of money and interest
rate and is the demand side economic policy used by the government of a country
to achieve macroeconomic objectives like inflation, consumption, growth and
liquidity (The Economic Times, 2022).
Obasi 2022, carried out a study titled, Assessment
of the Impact of Cargo Throughput on Port Productivity in Warri Seaport, Delta
State, Nigeria. The research work set out to assess the impact of cargo
throughput on port productivity in Warri Port in the pre-concession and
post-concession era, spanning 2000 to 2020, with main focus on productivity,
measured from annual cargo throughput. Concession arrangement which started in
2006 was a business strategy by the Government to cede management of the
Nigerian ports to private companies for more efficient management. The study
formulated and tested hypothesis in using moving average of time series analytical
tools. Secondary data of annual cargo throughput obtained from the Statistics
Department of NPA Warri, were analyzed. The test revealed that cargo throughput
and productivity of the port increased in the post-concession period of 2006 to
2020 relative to the pre-concession period of 2000 to 2020, leading to the
rejection of the null hypothesis and acceptance of their alternatives. This
indicated that the port become more efficient in infrastructural development
and operational management due to the concession arrangement. The study
recommended curbing insecurity in and around the port to encourage importers’
patronage and also dredging the Escravos bar to allow
passage for larger vessels to the port. It went further to suggest some areas
of further study among which is the one that borders on a comparative analysis
of the impact of wet cargo against dry cargo in the operational performance of
the Warri port.
Ports are essentially providers of service
activities, in particular for vessels, cargo and inland transport. According to
Musso et al. (2012), the degree of satisfaction that
is obtained on the basis of pre-set port standards will indicate the level of
port performance achieved. From the foregoing it is already
obvious that port performance levels will be different depending on measurement
criteria utilized in the system. Thus, a port, at least in theory, may offer a
very satisfactory service to vessel operators and at the same time be judged
inefficient by cargo interests and inland transport operators (or vice versa).
It is obviously more likely that poor performance will not be limited to one
group of port users, but rather pervade all services offered by the port. The
important lesson to learn from this is that port performance cannot be assessed
on the basis of a single value or measure. In fact, a meaningful evaluation of
a port’s performance will require sets of measures relating to: the duration of
a ship’s stay in port (turnaround time of ship in port), the quantity of the
cargo handled over a period-cargo throughput, the quantity of cargo handled by
a gang over a period and the volume of ship traffic handled over a period/berth
occupancy ratio.
According to Meersman
et al. (2010), port actors look at productivity from many angles eg shippers or owners of goods look at productivity from
the angle of minimizing the generalized cost including time. Also, the freight
forwarders look at productivity in port relative to cost reduction while
shipping companies look at port productivity relative to profit maximization or
improvement. The private port operators refer to port productivity as increased
ship traffics which will yield maximum profit through port dues reduction etc.
The complicating factor is the strong interrelationship that exists between
port efficiency and port productivity. Thus, it is virtually impossible and
certainly inappropriate to study each of these in isolation. However, because
of the particular importance of the first three sets, and their dominant
position with respect to the main port users (namely the ship operators, the
shippers and private port operators), this study will mainly concentrate on a
more detailed discussion of these first three. Port productivity could be
derived from these discussions as improved performance over a given period. It
is a ratio between port performance output over an input resource eg time, labour, gang, capital asset such as crane etc. In
the given circumstances, it is of crucial importance to agree on a basic and
common methodology. Hence in the following section an attempt will be made to
formulate generally acceptable notions, before analysing the factors
determining port performance and productivity then suggesting methods of
measuring and comparing through a generally agreed system of port statistics
and indicators. According to Emeghara (2102) productivity
is an extension of efficiency that is, the increase in output when input or
cost of production remains constant. In other words, productivity is the ratio
of output increase when input is steady. Fourgeaud
(2009), notes that, in addition to technical performance, shippers and ship
owners are looking for: Reliability, Competitive and predictable cost and cargo
handling quality, and adaptability and responsiveness. Nye (2009), defines
“efficiency” as improved performance and productivity or improved performance
over a period eg (containers per hour, man-hours per
move). Nye notes that automation is not a goal in itself, but a means of
striking the best balance between capacity and productivity, relative to cost
effectiveness and optimization goal). Le-Griffin & Murphy (2006) note the
problem in comparing terminals with and without large transshipment volumes.
Since transshipments generate two ship moves for a single container yard
transaction. Terminals with large volumes of transshipments show an inflated
TEU count. Despite noting this comparability problem, the authors do not
attempt to correct the problem in their comparisons. As they state, TEU/ acre
data “are of limited value in making straight comparisons of productivity.”
There is also some confusion in the survey between container moves per hour and
cranes per vessel, and between annual throughput and moves per crane. Their
survey makes two particularly useful observations and proposed an approach for
combined productivity optimization that focuses on mean equipment waiting
times. In a case study, this approach was used to isolate a bottleneck between
the transfer cranes and yard tractors.
Turnaround Time
Since
the introduction of containerized vessel, public keeps on arguing turnaround
time for vessel towards container terminal. Movement of good via vessel needs
to be arrived destination as soon as possible. That is why faster turnaround
time in terminal could accelerate the voyage. Therefore, turnaround time is
really a serious matter to be considered for container terminal. Shippers are
looking for a port which could provide fast turnaround time, when they could
reduce voyage as maximum as possible. For port container terminal, it is very
vital to have fast turnaround time for vessel. The cycle for operation in
terminal is not only involved between vessel and equipment, but it also
involves all aspects (from management to operation) in port container terminal
itself. Therefore, anything happens in terminal area will affect operation as a
whole. However, the ways to mitigate the problem truly depend on the management
because human runs machine. The significance of vessel turnaround time to port
container terminals can be expressed like what Cram & Baker (2001) said No
single cause more directly affects the cost of living of a maritime country
than the speed with which ships are turned round in her ports”. Furthermore,
lesser vessel turnaround time means no congestion and reduces port stay for
vessel. As a result, there is no queuing before vessel can berth. When talking
about no queuing and congestion means throughput for port container terminal relatively
will increase.
2.1 EMPIRICAL
REVIEW
Tabak et al. (2010) investigated financial stability and
monetary policy using the feasibility generalized least square (FGLS)
estimation technique, and found out that there is a significant and positive
association between monetary policy and assets quality.
Osmond et al. (2015) investigated the effect
of monetary policy on manufacturing in Nigeria utilizing an annual database
from 1981 to 2012. The study adopting the Johansen co-integration test and
error correction model (ECM), the findings showed that the supply of money and
credit to the private sector has a significant positive impact on the Nigerian
manufacturing sector.
Udor et al. (2018) investigated the impact of monetary policy
on the growth of SMEs in Nigeria. And adopted an ex post facto research design,
and the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used in the analysis of the time
series data, and also the Johansen co-integration approach was employed to test
for the long-run relationship among the series. The study found out that there
is a slight significant effect between interest rate (INR) and growth of SMEs
in Nigeria.
Osakwe et al. (2019) evaluated the effect of monetary policy on
the performance of the manufacturing sector in Nigeria. Using the
Autoregressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) model, the research found that monetary
policy exacts a significant positive impact on the manufacturing sector output
in Nigeria.
Gimba et al. (2020) examined the effect of monetary policy on
the financial performance of listed deposit money banks in Nigeria from 2006 to
2018. The study adopted the ex-post-facto research design. Using Panel time
series, the study found that monetary policy has a significant positive impact
on the performance of listed deposit money banks.
Mbabazize et al. (2020) investigated the influence of monetary
policy on the profitability of commercial banks in Uganda by utilizing an
annual set of data from 2010 to 2018. The study adopted the System Generalized
Method of Moments (GMM) model and found out that the lending rate has a
significant positive effect on the profitability of the banking sector while inflation
has a significant negative effect on the banks’ performance.
Uju and Ogochukwu, (2021)
investigated the effect of monetary policy on industrial growth in Nigeria
utilizing an annual time series dataset from1986 to 2019. Adopting the Ordinary
Least Square (OLS) regression, the study discovered that cash reserve and open
market operation have a significant positive impact on industrial growth, while
monetary policy rate has a significant negative effect on industrial sector
growth.
3.0 DATA AND
METHODS
This study focuses
on Warri Seaport, located in
Delta State, Nigeria. As a major port in the Niger Delta region, Warri Seaport
plays a critical role in the country’s trade and logistics sector. It is
involved in handling both bulk cargo
and containerized goods, which
makes it a key player in Nigeria's maritime industry.
Warri Seaport’s
performance in terms of cargo throughput directly impacts the region’s economic
activities, particularly in terms of imports and exports. This makes it an
ideal study area to analyze the effects of monetary policy, specifically the Naira redesign policy, on port
operations and cargo movement.
The research design is quantitative
and comparative in nature. The study is
aimed at assessing the effect of the Naira redesign policy
on cargo throughput at Warri Seaport by comparing the monthly cargo throughput
data for the years 2022 and 2023.
1.
Descriptive
Design: This part of the study
focuses on summarizing the monthly cargo throughput data for both years to
identify general trends and patterns. Descriptive statistics (mean and standard
deviation) will be calculated to understand the central tendency and
variability of the data.
2.
Comparative
Design: The study will compare
cargo throughput in 2022 (before the
Naira redesign) and 2023 (after the
policy was implemented) to determine whether there were significant differences
in throughput that could be attributed to the Naira redesign policy.
To assess the
impact of the Naira redesign policy on cargo throughput, the following methods
were used for data analysis:
Data
Interpretation
Inward Cargo Throughput:
Ø
Overall, inward cargo throughput
decreased by 2.11% in 2023
compared to 2022.
Ø
Major declines were observed in
March (-24.37%), August (-27.23%), and October (-23.72%), coinciding with the
Naira redesign implementation period.
Ø
The mean throughput dropped slightly from 559,551.83 to 547,745.50,
while the standard deviation decreased, suggesting reduced variability.
Outward Cargo Throughput:
Ø
Outward cargo throughput
increased by 24.10%, showing
significant growth in April (+99.93%), July (+90.67%), and August (+52.24%).
Ø
The mean outward cargo throughput
rose from 178,604.25 to 221,644.50, and variability (standard
deviation) increased, indicating higher fluctuations during the policy period.
The Naira
redesign policy had mixed effects on
cargo throughput at Warri Seaport:
Inward
Cargo Throughput
The policy
had a slightly negative effect on inward
cargo throughput, as the total volume decreased by 2.11% in 2023 compared to 2022. This suggests that
imports were marginally disrupted, possibly due to challenges in accessing cash
or adapting to the new policy.
Outward
Cargo Throughput
The policy
had a positive effect on outward cargo throughput, with a significant increase
of 24.10% in 2023 compared to 2022. This indicates that exports benefited,
possibly due to exporters taking advantage of favorable conditions during the
redesign period.
Overall Impact:
The Naira redesign policy had a negative impact on imports but a positive impact on exports, resulting in a mixed outcome for
cargo throughput at Warri Seaport.
CONCLUSION
This study explored the interplay between monetary
policy and maritime trade, focusing on the Naira redesign policy's impact on
cargo throughput at Warri Seaport. By analyzing inward and outward cargo data
for 2022 and 2023, the research provides critical insights into how monetary
policy influences port operations and trade flows.
The findings revealed a slightly negative impact on inward cargo throughput, with a 2.11%
decline in 2023 compared to 2022. Significant reductions in March, August, and
October suggest that the policy disrupted imports, likely due to challenges
such as cash shortages and adjustments to the redesigned currency.
Additionally, the reduction in mean throughput and variability highlights a contraction
in import activity during the policy period.
Conversely, the study found a positive impact on outward cargo throughput,
which increased by 24.10% in 2023. This growth was marked by substantial surges
in April, July, and August, indicating that exporters capitalized on the
opportunities created during the policy implementation. The increase in mean
throughput and variability suggests that export activities became more dynamic,
contributing to the overall positive performance in this segment.
In conclusion, the Naira redesign policy had a mixed impact on cargo throughput at Warri
Seaport, disrupting imports while boosting exports. These outcomes
underline the complex relationship between monetary policy and maritime trade.
Policymakers and port operators should take note of the asymmetric effects of
such policies to ensure trade stability. Strategies to mitigate negative
impacts on imports, such as improved cash distribution systems and policy
timing, could help minimize disruptions. Simultaneously, leveraging the
opportunities created for exports can enhance the overall efficiency and
contribution of seaports to the national economy.
This study contributes to the understanding of how
monetary policies influence port operations, offering a foundation for further
research into the broader implications of such policies on maritime trade and
economic development.
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